Some analysts already put a number on the expected volume.
Ford has already more than 20,000 reservations for the all-electric Ford F-150 Lightning pickup truck, but how many will be produced when it hits the market in 2022?
That’s an important question and even Ford CEO Jim Farley hinted at a limit to the production in the first year, according to Automotive News, although he hasn’t revealed any numbers:
“Speaking to reporters Wednesday evening, Farley said the company would limit production in the vehicle’s first year on sale and that Ford already had “made a call on volume,” but he declined to give a number.”
The Ford Mustang Mach-E production is running at 50,000 units annually so we can imagine some sort of a contracted volume also for the Ford F-150 Lightning.
We are accustomed to the situation that basically every new EV model is constrained on the supply side and a high demand translates into customer queues.
Taking into consideration that the electric F-150 is a completely new product line for Ford and that the battery supplies are not very flexible (you have to order batteries or even entire plants a few years ahead), there is a physical limit of some sort anyway.
Wolfe Research’s analyst Rod Lache expects 80,000 a year, but that is actually a quite substantial number, especially for the first year:
Wolfe Research analyst Rod Lache, in an investor note Thursday, estimated Lightning production would be limited to 80,000 pickups per year, based on capacity data from parts plants that supply the truck.
Ford would be probably very happy to be able to even produce 80,000 Ford F-150 Lightning, which would require 8-16 GWh of batteries alone (depending on the battery pack capacity of 100-200 kWh per pack – the exact number was not disclosed).
We guess that even half of 80,000 would be a great start for F-150 EV in 2022.
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